Following the announcement by ECB President Christine Lagarde that she will resign early on 7 February next year, the race for her successor is already gathering pace. The names of potential contenders had been circulating in political and financial circles even before her resignation was announced.
The names of Klaas Knot, backed by the Netherlands, and Pablo Hernández de Cos, backed by Spain, are currently the two main front-runners.
Betting odds currently favour Pablo Hernández de Cos, with Kalshi showing a 42% probability of his appointment, against 34% for Klaas Knot. A Bloomberg survey of economists also favours Hernández de Cos, with 12 respondents backing him against nine who favour Knot.
Hernández de Cos is currently General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). He previously served as Governor of the Bank of Spain from 2018 to 2024, during which he also sat on the ECB’s Governing Council.
Spain’s government, led by Pedro Sánchez, has promoted his candidacy, arguing that it is Spain’s turn to lead the ECB. No Spanish national has previously held the institution’s presidency.
Klaas Knot, meanwhile, is the candidate backed by the Netherlands. He served as President of De Nederlandsche Bank from 2011 to 2025 and chaired the Financial Stability Board from 2021 to 2025.
The contest is unfolding as European leaders prepare for a wider reshuffle at the ECB, with other senior positions also approaching the end of their terms. The negotiations could therefore involve a broader political compromise over the institution’s leadership, with national governments seeking to balance monetary expertise, geographical representation and influence over European economic policy.
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