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The Maltese Herald

For the first time ever the interests of Robert Abela are aligned with the Nationalist Party

—

by

Mark Camilleri
in

I would love to know what the PN administration thinks about the scenario of the Labour Party Parliamentary group voting against Prime Minister Robert Abela in a vote of no confidence. I doubt they would disclose their thoughts on this, but I am willing to pursue them about it.

I’m definitely sure that the Nationalist Party is not prepared and does not want the Labour Party to dramatically change its leader and make Chris Fearne Prime Minister at this very moment. Strategically, it would be their worst case scenario.

The Nationalist Party is betting that Robert Abela will keep losing votes while the Nationalist Party keeps making minimal gains. Having spoken to senior Nationalist Party sources in the past, they say that they are not planning for a grand home-run, but are banking on the effects of inflation, cost-of-living and increased economic challanges to compel voters to turn away from Labour. This is a reasonable strategy that is slowly paying off.

The problem with this strategy is that it based on a defensive precept and the prerequisite of a very weak enemy. If Chris Fearne replaces Robert Abela as Prime Minister, the Nationalist Party would have to change its strategy and immediately go on the offensive: that’s a very costly strategy right now which the Nationalist Party may not even be able to pull-off with its current leader.

If Chris Fearne eventually replaces Robert Abela, the urgency to replace the Nationalist Party leader would also increase for strategic reasons to the Nationalist Party, and this would coincide with the beginning of a series of cross-party resignations in a normalisation process of politics and governance across the state. Things could change rapidly fast in days after weeks and months of nothing happening.

Comments

  1. Cee Emm avatar
    Cee Emm

    I guess it entirely depends on how strong Chris Fearne’s public defense against not only his current legal problems is but also the fact that he made bombastic comments in the past which have not aged well at all. Like for example “The Real Deal”. And his defense of corrupt individuals like Keith Kasco, Konrad Mizzi and Joseph Muscat. Etc. Etc.

    I will not say Chris Fearne is corrupt, quite the opposite. But he has many flaws which, if elected leader the PN should be quick to point out.

    Does Chris Fearne want to put himself in this position ? Is taking over the leadership of Labour worth that for him ?

    Reply
  2. Cee Emm avatar
    Cee Emm

    I see Labour today in the same position the PN was in after 2008. I think they have accepted the likeliness that they will lose the next elections and end up in Opposition and only then will they move to replace Robert Abela.

    Reply
    1. Sim72 avatar
      Sim72

      The PL will not lose the next general election irrespective of who the leader is. The 8,000 gap of the MEP election was just a protest vote, nothing more, while the local councils election was more close to reality.

      My speculation is that the P will win the next election with around 18-22,000 votes. Keep in mind that the PN has no strategy and not moving a finger to attract new voters. They think that they will win by default. They had 11 years to fix the party, reorganize themselves and come up with a few alternate policies. They did none of that, and at this ‘laid back’ so called strategy, the PN will lose another two general election cycles, before they realize that they need to do something energetic and strategic.

      Reply
  3. So far, only Manuel Delia has made strong case against Chris Fearne – Mark Camilleri avatar
    So far, only Manuel Delia has made strong case against Chris Fearne – Mark Camilleri

    […] Fearne is currently at loggerheads with Robert Abela. It may also have to do with the fact that the Nationalist politicians have serious challenges to fight him given that despite all his faults and culpability, Chris Fearne still tried to do the […]

    Reply

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