The difference between the futures oil price and the spot price (often also referred to as the basis, spread or differential) has gone down significantly since the Iran war started, signaling that the oil shortage crisis may be coming to an end. Separately, multiple reports confirm that Europe is replacing jet fuel imports from the Gulf with jet fuel imports from the US and Nigeria, also indicating that jet fuel shortages predicted for Summer may be averted.
According to the International Energy Agency, Europe has already replaced up to 50% of all Persian Gulf oil and gas imports.
Jet fuel prices are still high but have been coming off along with the oil price.
Talks will continue today in Islamabad between the US government and the Iranian regime while the Strait of Hormuz is gradually being re-opened. Tracking data shows that the number of ships passing through both sides of the Strait is increasing once again following minor hostilities during the weekend.
Chart below by OilBandit.
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