A new nationwide survey released during the 2026 General Election campaign has placed the Labour Party in a strong position ahead of the Nationalist Party, with projections indicating a lead ranging between nine and 12 percentage points. This is similar to last week’s survey which has the PL ahead by 28,000 votes on an 80% turnout.
The survey, conducted by Sagalytics and Prof Vincent Marmara between April 30 and May 6, surveyed 1,200 respondents aged 16 and over through telephone and mobile interviews. Researchers said the poll was carried out with a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of ±2.8%.
According to the methodology published alongside the survey, the sample was carefully calibrated to reflect Malta’s demographic makeup as well as voting patterns recorded during the 2022 General Election. Analysts also applied the Multiple Imputation Technique to account for respondents who declined to answer certain questions, a method aimed at increasing statistical accuracy.
When respondents were asked which party they intended to vote for in the upcoming general election, 47.3% said they would support the Labour Party, while 36.5% backed the Nationalist Party.
Support for smaller parties remained limited, with 1.7% saying they would vote for ADPD and 1.6% opting for other political parties. Meanwhile, 12.9% of respondents said they were still undecided, highlighting that a sizeable portion of the electorate has yet to make a final decision.
After applying its scientific projection model to undecided and non-responding voters, Sagalytics projected the following national result:
- Labour Party – 53.1%
- Nationalist Party – 42.6%
- ADPD – 2.3%
- Other parties – 2.0%
The survey indicates that, assuming voter turnout reaches around 81%, the electoral gap between the two main parties could fluctuate between 9% and 12%, depending on how undecided voters ultimately cast their ballots.
Based on the average projection, the Labour Party is estimated to hold an advantage of approximately 29,000 votes over the Nationalist Party.
The findings are expected to intensify political debate as campaigning continues ahead of the 2026 General Election, with both major parties likely to focus heavily on undecided voters in the coming weeks.
Sports Editor
Veteran Journalist
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