The first opinion poll of the 2026 general election campaign indicates a clear lead for the Labour Party (PL) over the Nationalist Party (PN), though a notable share of undecided voters could still influence the final outcome.
The survey was conducted by Sagalytics between April 23 and 29, 2026, using both landline and mobile telephone interviews. It sampled 1,200 individuals aged 16 and over, with a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of ±2.8%. The sample was calibrated to reflect Malta’s demographics and voting patterns from the 2022 Maltese general election to ensure maximum accuracy. For non-responses, researchers applied the Multiple Imputation Technique.
When respondents were asked which party they would vote for in the next general election, 47.9% said they would support the Labour Party, while 36.9% chose the Nationalist Party. A further 2.6% indicated support for ADPD or other parties, while 12.6% remained undecided.
After applying statistical modelling to account for those who declined to answer, the projected final results shift further in Labour’s favour. The Labour Party is estimated at 53.2%, the Nationalist Party at 43.1%, and ADPD or other parties at 3.7%.
Despite this advantage, the relatively high number of undecided voters means the margin could still fluctuate. Scenario modelling suggests the gap between the two main parties could range between 9% and 11%.
Based on an assumed voter turnout of around 80%, the survey projects a lead for the Labour Party of between 26,000 and 30,000 votes. This places the average estimated majority at approximately 28,000 votes in favour of Labour.
While still early in the campaign, the findings provide an initial snapshot of the political landscape, with the Labour Party holding a strong position but with room for shifts as undecided voters make their choice.
Sports Editor
Veteran Journalist
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