A new national survey conducted by Prof. Vincent Marmarร between 13 and 19 February 2026 shows the Labour Party holding a consistent lead over the Nationalist Party, with the gap projected to range between 9 and 11 percentage points.
The survey was carried out via landline and mobile telephone on a sample of 1,200 respondents aged 16 and over.
It has a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ยฑ2.8%.
The sample was weighted to reflect Maltese demographics and voting behaviour in the 2022 general election. For respondents who declined to answer, the debatable Multiple Imputation statistical method was used to reduce non-response bias.
When participants were asked how they would vote if a general election were held tomorrow, the raw responses were:
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46.8% โ Labour Party (PL)
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38.2% โ Nationalist Party (PN)
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3.2% โ ADPD or other parties
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11.8% โ Undecided
After applying Marmarร โs statistical model to account for undecided voters and refusals, the projected outcome shifts to:
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PL โ 52.8%
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PN โ 42.6%
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ADPD / others โ 4.6%
The modelling suggests that the Labour Partyโs lead is stable, though the exact margin depends on how undecided voters eventually distribute their support.
Based on an estimated 77% valid turnout and multiple allocation scenarios for undecided voters, the survey projects a Labour majority of between 25,000 and 29,000 votes.
The findings indicate that while Labour retains a clear electoral advantage, a notable 11.8% of voters remain undecided, leaving some room for movement before an election.
However, even under more conservative scenarios, the data points to a comfortable Labour lead, rather than a close contest.
Prof. Marmarร โs survey continues to show a pattern consistent with recent polling trends, with the Nationalist Party trailing but maintaining a solid base above 40%, and smaller parties remaining below the 5% threshold.
The February 2026 survey confirms Labour as the frontrunner, with a projected double-digit lead and a sizeable vote margin. The final outcome, however, will depend on turnout levels and how undecided voters ultimately break in the months leading up to a general election.
Sports Editor
Veteran Journalist
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