Yesterday, Donald Trump admitted and even took pride in sabotaging a bipartisan-Senate deal that would have addressed the border crisis and send up to $60 billion in US arms supplies to Ukraine including missiles and ammunition. Ukraine is currently stating that it is in desperate need of artillery shells and missiles to hold off Russian advances and keep up with its counter-offensive campaign.
The reality and scenario whereby the US may break or distort its alliance with Europe and side with Russian interests at Europe’s expense is here. This political phenomenon is currently materialising with Donald Trump and the GOP faction in the Republican Party who ever more are resembling a fifth column of fascist lunatics.
Ukraine depends on US military aid to support its defensive war against its belligerent Russian neighbour and failing this support, Ukraine may risk losing even more territory. In a scenario where Ukraine permanently loses its stream of US aid, and Europe does not replace this aid, Europe would be allowing a Russian victory over Ukraine, and by default making it even easier for Russia to invade another neighbouring European country once again. Letting Ukraine lose to Russia also means that Europe is showing reluctance in facing Russia in warring terms, further weakening Europe’s strategic resolve in a potential scenario of an actual hot war with Russia.
In a press conference after his first meeting with German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal declared that France was to ramp up its military aid to Ukraine apart from increasing the range of weapons at its disposal. The comments echo Macron’s pledge to send Ukraine more sophisticated weaponry.
There is, however, a sea dividing words and action and Macron’s change of heart on Ukraine has not been as materially effective as to provide any strategic Ukrainian victories on the battlefield. France can get serious about its commitment by consolidating its relationship with Eastern Europe while building an effective military build-up in Ukraine that would lead to progress and victories on the Ukrainian side. Ultimately, that’s the only way Macron can mark an effective French story in global affairs that it can go solo, without the backing of the US, and be successful in doing it. Anything less and France is still just an essential component of a wider alliance that needs to be conserved.
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