Ever since Russia has invaded Ukraine, the West has been obliged to listen to the long string of Russian propaganda about Russian escalation and nuclear threats. Most of the discussion on weaponry provisions to Ukraine has centered around this ephemeral concept: Russian escalation.
Russian escalation never came despite the constant threats and Russia is throwing everything it has got at Ukraine with so far, minimal success. A prospective Trump presidency and a US foreign policy of Russian appeasement wouldn’t necessarily mean that Ukraine will comply with the US’s demand to cede land to Russia and end the war.
In case the US cut offs all its support to Ukraine and Ukraine decides to keep fighting, it may decide to escalate the war on its own terms. With its major weaponry provider cutting off the flow of weapons, Ukraine would be liberated from its provider’s obligations, especially if the United States becomes a significant appeaser of Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine has the option to escalate the war on its own terms by taking the war to Russia’s territory, something that the US has consistently pressured Ukraine to avoid. Ukraine may also chose to strike against Russian commercial and infrastructure targets in Europe and elsewhere including at the remaining gas pipelines connected between Russia and Europe, oil tankers, cargo ships and even economic assets in Africa.
In case the Ukrainian government is compelled against its will to sign a peace treaty with Russia, there will be a very large and significant number of Ukrainians with combat experience and access to weaponry who will undoubtedly choose to continue the war on their own terms. Guerrilla and partisan warfare seems to be unavoidable in many different case scenarios.
Ending the war in Ukraine may not be so easy with Donald Trump’s proposal.
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