Igor Vsevolodovich Girkin (Strelkov), who was the Russian military commander responsible for starting the separatist wars in Ukraine in 2014 and also responsible for the downing of the civilian plane, Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 in 2014, has released his assessment over the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and stated that the talks will eventually collapse with no reconciliation found between Ukraine and Russia.
In January of last year, Igor Girkin was served with a four year prison sentence in a penal colony on charges over extremism. He was imprisoned as he increased his criticism against Vladimir Putin over his failure to win the war in Ukraine and eventually called on him to resign. Igor Girkin is a war criminal and a terrorist but in Russia, he is considered as one of the very few and last remaining competent military commanders.
His full statement can be read below.
Although our president claims that Zelensky is illegitimate, in practice he is legitimate, since he is recognized as such by most of the world’s states, all European countries, and even by Trump himself. It is Trump who has become the so-called moderator of the peace process, which in reality will not take place, and it is he who determines who is legitimate and who is not. The role of mediator between himself and Zelensky, Vladimir Vladimirovich has personally handed over to Trump.
As for the specifics, for me there is no question at all about what the negotiations will bring — because nothing will be signed. This peace process is stillborn and can only be considered as a way of dragging out time, something in which our leaders are quite skilled. In this case, stalling for time is to some extent even in our favor, since no new sanctions are being imposed against Russia and a background is being created in which America is less willing to allocate additional aid to Zelensky, even though he is already receiving more than enough. As for the outcome, it can be said with a high degree of probability: Ukraine and Russia will not be able to reconcile their positions.
There will be no exchange of territories, because if we take the ‘Witkoff’ option — the exchange of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson territory for parts of Donbas — both sides will end up losing, and only the United States will win. At present, neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready to acknowledge defeat, therefore they will not agree to such a deal. If we take the ‘Vladimir Vladimirovich’ option — the exchange of small sections of Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts for the same Donbas territories controlled by Ukraine — naturally Ukraine will not agree, since the value of these territories is practically zero.
Unfortunately, Kyiv holds densely populated agglomeration areas, while we hold only small border sections with completely destroyed infrastructure, where heavy fighting is ongoing: sometimes more successfully, sometimes less, and sometimes not successfully at all. In any case, our gains are merely tactical and of no decisive importance. Therefore, there will be no agreements or results. In the end, it is highly likely that Trump will declare that either Putin is incapable of negotiation, or Zelensky is, or both.
America will wash its hands and leave it to the Europeans — who remain and will remain its allies — to help Ukraine in whatever way they see fit. That means purchasing weapons for Ukraine in America, transferring them, and supporting in every other way. At the same time, the United States itself supplies these weapons, provides intelligence, and in fact created the so-called Ukraine in its current form after the 2014 Maidan. The U.S. is essentially stepping aside — removing itself from possible retribution (if such ever occurs) and freeing its hands. A very convenient position for them. America’s interest is for Russia to return as a vassal to its sphere of influence, breaking away from China, and it tries to trade between Russia and Ukraine in such a way that both sides lose. At the moment, this is not working. Therefore, I believe this entire peace process will end in a deadlock.
Furthermore, I would note this: if before a Zelensky-Putin meeting Russia gained certain dividends — for example, Trump was forced to recognize Putin’s legitimacy, despite the fact that earlier he was declared an international criminal and put on a wanted list — now, if a meeting in Minsk takes place as expected, we will find ourselves at a loss. We will be forced to recognize Zelensky’s legitimacy despite numerous declarations of his illegitimacy. Overall, I expect nothing from this except a process for the sake of process, which will end in nothing, while all real decisions will still be made on the battlefield. Who will win this war will be decided precisely in the course of the war.
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