The Labour Party continues to hold a narrow lead over the Nationalist Party, maintaining a three-point advantage that equates to 9,262 votes, according to the first MaltaToday survey for 2026.
The survey places PL support at 48.9%, while the PN stands at 45.7%. Collectively, third parties account for 5.4% of the vote. When compared to the previous survey in November 2025, Labour gains 0.2 percentage points, while the PN drops by 0.4.
The findings suggest the gap between the two main parties has remained broadly stable since October โ the first survey conducted after Alex Borg became PN leader.
The results are based on a survey of 813 respondents contacted during the first two weeks of January. The data assumes a projected turnout of 81.1%, similar to that recorded in November.
On this projected turnout, Labourโs lead stands at 9,262 votes, up from 7,602 in November. However, this increase is statistically insignificant and falls within the surveyโs margin of error of +/-3.5 points. In fact, the fact that the difference between the two parties remains within the margin of error has been a recurring feature since October, pointing towards a degree of stabilisation in voter behaviour.
Voter gap similar to MEP Elections
The survey was carried out amid renewed speculation about an early election. While the prime minister has reiterated his intention to present another budget in October before heading to the polls in 2027, he has also left the door open to an earlier election should โgeopolitical disruptionsโ require him to seek a fresh mandate.
As in November, the current gap mirrors the tight margins seen in the 2024 MEP elections, but remains far smaller than Labourโs 40,000-vote victory in the 2022 general election.
The reduced advantage is largely attributed to a growing number of 2022 Labour voters who now say they would not vote. The share of non-voters among Labourโs 2022 supporters has steadily risen โ from 6.7% in June 2025, to 9.9% in October, 11.8% in November, and now 13.9%.
This trend suggests Labour is still struggling to win back dissatisfied former supporters and rebuild its previous super-majority. The picture is notably different for the PN.
PN voters returning to the fold
Since Alex Borg took over the party leadership, the PN has seen a sharp drop in abstention among its former voters. The percentage of 2022 PN supporters who now say they would not vote has fallen from 10.5% in June 2025 to 5% in October and November, and further down to 3.9% in the latest survey.
Overall, the PN is retaining a larger share of its 2022 voters than Labour. The survey indicates that 86.7% of PN voters would still back the party if an election were held today, compared to 75.6% of Labour voters. Even so, with PN support appearing to have levelled off at around 46% since October, it remains unclear whether the party has reached a plateau or still has room to grow.
The survey also highlights the continued fragmentation of the third-party vote, with ADPD and Momentum both registering equal support at 2.3% each.
Trust rating – Borg continues to close gap
Prime Minister Robert Abela is trusted to run the country by 41.3% of voters, while Nationalist leader Alex Borg is backed by 35.9% in a direct comparison, according to MaltaTodayโs first survey of 2026.
When compared to the November results, Abela has dropped by 3.9 percentage points, while Borg has registered a slight increase of 0.6 points. Abelaโs decline is largely mirrored by a 3.3-point rise in the share of respondents who said they trust neither of the two leaders.
The survey was carried out during a period in which both major parties placed their leaders at the centre of their messaging, marking Borgโs first 100 days in office in December and Abelaโs sixth anniversary as prime minister in January.
The findings indicate that the calmer political climate over the Christmas period may have worked against Abela, without translating into any meaningful boost for Borg. Instead, the festive season appears to have fuelled a degree of political disengagement, reflected in the growing number of voters who are not placing their trust in either leader.
Sports Editor
Veteran Journalist
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