Two new election surveys published midway through the 2026 general election campaign indicate that the Labour Party has widened its advantage over the Nationalist Party, with both polls pointing to a growing lead for Prime Minister Robert Abela and his party.
A survey published by MaltaToday places Labour ahead of the PN by an estimated 17,386 votes, while a separate poll commissioned by Times of Malta and carried out by Esprimi suggests the gap has widened even further to around 28,600 votes.
The MaltaToday survey, based on a sample of 1,408 respondents and carried out between the start of the election campaign and May 13, found that Labour currently leads the PN by 6.3 percentage points after statistical adjustments were applied to undecided voters. The projected vote gap ranges between 15,456 and 23,735 votes, significantly below Labour’s 39,000-vote victory margin in the 2022 general election, but substantially higher than earlier surveys this year.
The poll also showed that 16.6% of voters remain undecided, equivalent to around 59,000 people, introducing an important level of uncertainty into the race. Before statistical imputation was applied, Labour already held a 5.7-point advantage over the PN.
Compared to March, Labour’s lead in the MaltaToday survey widened from 2.6 points to 6.3 points, while the trust gap between Robert Abela and Alex Borg increased from 6.4 points to seven points in favour of the Labour leader.
The survey also suggested that Labour is proving more effective at mobilising its traditional voters. The PN is now estimated to be losing 15% of its 2022 voters to abstention, compared to 11.3% for Labour. However, researchers also identified a small but steady swing of votes from Labour to the PN, while the PN is recovering more support from those who abstained in 2022.
Meanwhile, the Times of Malta poll painted an even stronger picture for Labour. Conducted between May 6 and 13 among 600 respondents, the survey projected Labour on 52.9% of the vote, compared to 44% for the PN, giving Labour an 8.9-point lead. Smaller parties were projected to secure 3.1% of the vote.
According to the survey, Labour’s support has increased by 1.6 percentage points since April, while the PN dropped by one point. In practical terms, this means Labour’s lead has expanded by around 9,000 votes over the past month.
The Times of Malta survey also indicated that non-voters now account for 12.1% of the electorate, down from 16% a month earlier. This translates into a projected turnout of 87.9%, slightly higher than the 85.6% turnout recorded in the 2022 general election.
Labour’s projected vote share of 52.9% marks its strongest polling performance since the 2022 election, when it secured 55.1% of the national vote. The PN, meanwhile, has slipped to its lowest polling level since mid-2023.
Both surveys suggest that smaller parties continue to struggle to make significant gains, despite hopes of replicating the momentum generated during the 2024 European Parliament elections, when independent and third-party candidates secured 12.7% of the vote, partly driven by the strong showing of Arnold Cassola.
The polling period coincided with the opening weeks of the election campaign, during which Labour launched an intensive campaign focused on proposals and messaging, while the PN sought to regain momentum with targeted economic proposals aimed at increasing disposable income and attracting support from emerging economic sectors.
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