The Labour Party is projected to maintain a comfortable lead over the Nationalist Party ahead of polling day, according to MaltaToday’s second and final election survey.
The survey places Labour approximately 18,000 votes ahead of the PN, although the projected gap could range between 12,600 and 28,800 votes depending on the statistical model applied.
While Labour remains firmly ahead, the projected margin is notably smaller than the 39,000-vote advantage recorded in the 2022 general election.
The survey, conducted between 13 and 24 May during the latter stages of the campaign, is based on a sample of 1,382 respondents and carries a margin of error of ±2.6%.
Turnout Expected to Decline
Projected turnout currently stands at 79.2%, representing a drop of 3.5 percentage points from the last general election.
A significant factor influencing the race remains the large number of undecided voters. According to the survey, 11.7% of respondents have yet to decide who they will support, equivalent to roughly 41,500 voters.
Researchers used statistical modelling to estimate how undecided voters are likely to distribute their support, but their final choices could still influence the overall result.
Compared to MaltaToday’s first survey earlier in the campaign, the percentage gap between the two major parties has remained stable at 6.4 points. However, due to slightly higher projected turnout, the numerical gap widened from around 17,400 votes to just over 18,000.
Labour Still Leads by Six Points
The survey projects Labour on 50.6% of the vote, slightly up from 50.1% in the previous survey. The PN stands at 44.2%, marginally higher than its previous 43.8%, while third parties are projected to secure 5.2%, down from 6.1%.
All changes fall within the margin of error and are therefore statistically insignificant.
Despite maintaining its lead, Labour appears to be suffering more heavily from voter abstention than the PN.
The survey indicates that 10.9% of Labour voters from the 2022 election now intend not to vote, compared to 6% of former PN voters.
Small Swing Towards PN
The findings also suggest a modest shift in support from Labour to the Nationalist Party.
Around 4.4% of voters who supported Labour in 2022 are now expected to vote PN, while 3% of former PN voters are projected to switch to Labour. This translates into a net shift of roughly 3,500 votes in favour of the PN.
However, the survey suggests that Labour’s reduced support compared to 2022 is driven more by abstention among its own voters than by direct losses to the opposition.
Based on the projections, Labour could lose approximately 17,700 votes from its 2022 tally due to abstention, while the PN is expected to lose around 7,400.
Tight Race in Gozo
Regional figures point towards a much closer contest in Gozo than previously indicated.
The PN is still ahead in Gozo, but its lead has narrowed significantly from 12 points in the first survey to just 3.3 points.
Labour, meanwhile, appears to have strengthened support in traditional strongholds, particularly in the South Harbour region, which includes Cottonera and Żabbar, where support rose above 50%.
The party also maintains a strong lead in the South Eastern region, including localities such as Żejtun, Żurrieq and Birżebbuġa.
Labour also continues to perform strongly in the North Harbour region, retaining an eight-point advantage in areas that include Qormi, Birkirkara and Sliema.
The PN, however, enjoys stronger support in the Northern and Western regions, leading by eight points and seven points respectively.
Labour Ahead Across All Age Groups
The survey places Labour ahead among all age categories, although its smallest lead is among voters aged between 36 and 50 and among pensioners, where the advantage narrows to just two points.
The PL performs strongest among younger voters aged 16 to 35, where it leads by almost nine points, while also holding an eight-point lead among those aged between 51 and 65.
Abstention rates are highest among younger voters and middle-aged groups.
Education Divide Remains Clear
A breakdown by educational level shows Labour enjoying substantial support among respondents with primary, secondary and post-secondary education.
Notably, Labour leads by 12 points among post-secondary educated voters, including individuals who pursued studies beyond secondary school at institutions such as MCAST.
The PN continues to dominate among tertiary-educated voters, leading by 16 points in that category, although the survey also suggests higher abstention and stronger third-party support among university graduates.
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