Vincent Marmara survey indicates no significant change with Labour ahead by 30k votes

The Labour Party continues to hold a significant advantage over the Nationalist Party, according to the fourth Sagalytics/Vincent Marmara survey carried out during the 2026 General Election campaign.

The survey was conducted between May 14 and May 20 through telephone and mobile interviews. A total of 1,500 respondents aged 16 and over participated in the poll, which carries a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of ±2.5%.

Researchers said the sample was calibrated according to Malta’s demographic profile and voting patterns from the 2022 general election to ensure maximum accuracy. For respondents who declined to answer, the Multiple Imputation Technique was used.

When participants were asked which party they intended to vote for in the upcoming general election, 49.1% said they would vote for the Labour Party, while 38.1% backed the Nationalist Party. Another 3.2% said they would support smaller parties, while 9.6% remained undecided.

After applying the scientific model to account for undecided voters and refusals, the projected result currently stands at:

• Labour Party – 53.3%
• Nationalist Party – 42.8%
• Other parties – 3.9%

The survey suggests that Labour’s lead currently ranges between nine and 12 percentage points, depending on different turnout and undecided voter scenarios, in addition to the poll’s margin of error.

Researchers noted that voter movement between the two major parties remains relatively limited, with gains by one party often being offset by shifts in the opposite direction.

The survey also highlighted the importance of turnout levels, particularly in light of trends from recent elections that have shown declining voter participation. Analysts explained that both turnout and the proportion of undecided voters could still influence the final gap between the parties.

Taking various turnout and undecided voter scenarios into account, Labour’s projected lead is estimated to range between 27,000 and 33,000 votes, with the average advantage currently standing at around 30,000 votes in favour of the Labour Party.