Marmara survey remains with identical PL advantage

The third survey by Vince Marmara’s Sagalytics, conducted during the 2026 General Election campaign indicates that the Labour Party continues to hold a significant advantage over the Nationalist Party, with the projected gap currently ranging between 9% and 11%.

The survey was carried out between 7 and 13 May 2026 through telephone and mobile interviews. A sample of 1,200 people aged 16 and over was used, with a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of ±2.8%. The sample was calibrated according to Maltese demographics and voting patterns from the 2022 General Election in order to maximise accuracy. For respondents who declined to answer, researchers applied the Multiple Imputation Technique.

When participants were asked which party they intended to vote for in the next general election, 48.9% said they would vote for the Labour Party, while 37.1% expressed support for the Nationalist Party. A further 3.3% said they would vote for ADPD or other parties, while 10.7% remained undecided.

After applying the scientific projection model to account for those who refused to answer, the estimated national result currently stands at:

• Labour Party: 52.9%
• Nationalist Party: 42.9%
• ADPD and other parties: 4.2%

The analysis notes that depending on how undecided voters eventually cast their ballots, the projected gap between the two main parties could fluctuate between 9% and 11%, excluding the survey’s margin of error.

Researchers also observed that direct vote movement between parties appears limited, with gains by one party largely offset by movement in the opposite direction. The survey further examined the possible impact of voter turnout, particularly in light of trends from recent elections showing a gradual decline in participation.

According to the analysis, both turnout levels and the behaviour of undecided voters could significantly influence the final margin. Under different turnout and undecided voter scenarios, the projected vote gap currently ranges between 26,000 and 32,000 votes in favour of the Labour Party, with the average estimate standing at around 29,000 votes.