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The Maltese Herald

Labour Party pollster Vince Marmara celebrated party’s win at the Labour Party HQ

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by

Mark Camilleri
in ,

There have been some discussions about the accuracy and the inherent biases of Vincent Marmara’s surveys, which are used by the Maltese press to report on polling, perceptions of the electorate and voting preferences. Vincent Marmara also does the polls for the Labour Party, apart from doing the polls which he issues to the press.

Yesterday, he was celebrating the Labour Party’s victory at the Labour Party’s HQ.

His surveys were consistently off the mark, as they predicted a much wider majority for the Labour Party. His inflated polls helped the Labour Party project strength, although much of it was not there. Vincent Marmara is saying that his figures were within the range of his margin of error.

In any case, he has been way off the mark, and if he is satisfied by predicting a Labour Party election win, he is lowering standards to the bottom to serve his interests. I suspect that his loyalty to the Labour Party eventually turned him into someone who says what his masters want to hear from him.

In any case, lots of science was conducted yesterday in Ħamrun, which will once again be reflected in his surveys.

 

 

 

Comments

7 responses to “Labour Party pollster Vince Marmara celebrated party’s win at the Labour Party HQ”

  1. CeeEmm avatar
    CeeEmm

    He is killing his own career by destroying his own credibility. No matter how much he tries to justify his surveys the bottom line is that he was off by 25 to 30 percent on the gap between Labour and PN.

    The only thing he got right was that PL would win. Anyone could have guessed that.. unfortunately.

    Reply
    1. Bastjan avatar
      Bastjan

      He’s not killing anything. This “fantasy” of reducing others to somehow console ourselves is pathetic.

      He is making a killing, more likely. He is there, celebrating. For a reason.

      Fantasizing about the imaginary negative effects of something won’t magically make them true. Even if it is a tough pill to swallow, one should never renounce truth.

      Destroying his own credibility… pff, as if he cares about that.

      Reply
      1. William Farrugia avatar
        William Farrugia

        Beg to differ. CeeEmm is right. Next polls most other news outlets will not use him and PN supporters would be emboldened to ignore his polls. He has ruined his credibility. You are only allowed one mistake in the business of forecasting whatever the sector

        Reply
  2. Macduff avatar
    Macduff

    “I did my bit for a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

    Reply
  3. John Borg avatar
    John Borg

    He was outside margin of error meaning his surveys are fraudulent– no question about it. And the times too– they have become a pro labour mouthpiece to survive financially. Anyone who still believes these 2 after such errors (marmara also missed the EU result) are fools

    Reply
  4. M.Galea avatar
    M.Galea

    U zgur li jiccelebra kemm eluf ta xejn qed idahhal min fuq darna! U l poplu!? Ikompli jaghmel tajjeb ghal izjed min dan!

    Reply
  5. SAB avatar
    SAB

    Anyone who knows the integrity of Dr Vincent Marmara, knows that he has also been invited in the past to PN’s Dar Centrali. Dr Alex Borg, amongst other past PN candidates, engaged Dr Marmara for research work throughout the race for the leadership position. Dr. Marmara’s loyalty is towards numbers and mathematics, and finds no difficulty whatsoever in presenting and explaining those numbers no matter in which direction they’re pointing towards.

    As for accuracy regarding forecasting and results, the % difference for PN between predicted and actual figures was +1.8%. For PL, that % difference was -1.5%. Both figures well within the margin of error of +/-2.8%.

    As for predictions and results of MEP elections, one very particular event that occurred within the prior 48hrs did manage to swing a considerable number of undecided voters. Then again, a number of voters prefer to teach the government a lesson during MEP elections rather than in the actual general election.

    All 3 polling companies were consistently projecting a Labour win this election – though it is fair to say, and ought to be duly noted, that Dr Alex Borg has made a remarkable job in uniting the opposition party and propelling it forward in such a short time. Kudos!

    Everyone is entitled to think as one wishes. That is generally how biases are eventually formed. However, in the face of what is actually true with respect to Dr Marmara .. and especially when one considers that his polling work for this election was financed by himself, talk of (and I quote) “someone who says what his masters want to hear from him” could not be further from the truth.

    I hope you publish my comment this time. Thanks.

    Reply

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