Ukraine’s frontlines are being rattled but Russia is literally throwing at it everything that it has left

News that the southern front in Ukraine may collapse have come as no surprise to those that have been following the ongoing war in Ukraine very closely. Russia is using its age-old military tactics of throwing men to the fire until their enemy is finally under-resources and under-equipped enough to become overwhelmed.

The Russian leadership does not value human life and it views its men as dispensable objects of war. The Russians have two major advantages in this war: control of the skies and large numbers of men and they are using these advantages on the frontlines constantly at massive costs.

Russia bombs frontlines and Ukrainian cities with missiles and heavy bombs, use heavy artillery indiscriminately and overwhelms the positions of the Ukrainians with waves of bombings and shelling before launching their hordes of death squads. The Russians are fighting a very brutal war and they are killing civilians indisicriminately.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians don’t have control of the skies and don’t have enough heavy weaponry to overwhelm Russian forces. Ukrainian’s army of up to 1 million men is scattered throughout a very large front and various hotspots: under-equipped and under-resourced.

The Ukrainians don’t afford to lose many men and without the much needed heavy-weaponry and air-support, the Ukrainians have to fight a very tactical, surgical, highly systematic and coordinated war. The Ukrainians use skill and precision to their advantage and their war-strategy is backed up by drone warfare, AI, efficient communications and precise intelligence.

Russia has lost more than 1.1 million men to the war either dead or crippled and loses more than 1,000 men in Ukraine every day. Officially, it is registering it has up to 67 million men. Vladimir Putin called up to 160,000 men to the army, this year alone. Russia is filling its labour gaps at home with third-country nationals and is also importing Africans and Brazilians to work in armaments-factories.

Russia doesn’t seem to have a shortage of men for now and Vladimir Putin can call up reservists with ease. However, Russia has already run out of most of its land-related heavy weaponry. Most of Russia’s old stock of Soviet vehicles have also been used up or is unusable.  Russia has lost more than 11,000 tanks and 34,000 artillery pieces during this war according t the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence. They have also lost thousands of other military vehicles, and tens of thousands of  cars and vans, which have basically replaced Russian armour on the frontlines.

Despite its size, the Russian army is very weak and vulnerable but what keeps the Ukrainians back is Russia’s air superiority. Russia spent up to $13 billion alone last year on drone and missile production. This expenditure will be higher this year after Russia has exponentially increased missile and drone attacks.

Russia desperately needs Europe to cut back on sanctions and stop aiding Ukraine and it is trying to achieve this aim by intimidating Europe with various kind of hybrid attacks. If Ukraine can not win militarily on the frontlines, it has to win strategically by cutting Russia’s resources and capabilities to conduct war.

Ukraine is fighting Russia by destroying its economy which is currently a war-time economy. Russia’s biggest source of revenue are oil sales so Ukraine has been systematically destroying Russia’s oil industry. Sanctions are helping this war-effort and Russia’s oil sales are down heavily.

According to Russia’s Central Bank, financial inflows to Russia’s vital oil and gas sector recorded a marked decline throughout 2025, according to newly published figures from the Bank of Russia. The oil sector posted consecutive drops of –6.9% in Q1, –4.9% in Q2, –2.4% in Q3, and –8% in August, making it the single largest contributor to the overall fall in external-demand revenues. The report attributes this reduction to lower export flows, sanctions-driven market re-routing, and lower oil prices.

However, Ukraine’s and Europe’s war-efforts against the Russian oil-sector are partially being offset with new investments being poured into Russia. Capital inflows into non-oil sectors—particularly investment-driven industries—recorded growth of +5.6%, while capital inflows across the economy (excluding oil and government-sector movements) rose by +1.3%.

The Russian Central Bank says it wants inflation at 4% but its official figure is at 7.7% for the last month and is going down. It projects a GDP growth of 0.6% this year. Russia’s GDP has remained somewhat stable at around $2.2 trillion since the start of the war.

The Russian economy is currently a war-time economy based on government expenditure and massive debt. The Russian Rouble survives on the premise that the war will be over and Russia start slowly patching things up as it did after the early 1990s economic disaster. Debt end lending levels are very high in Russia with interest rates at 16.5%. Russia’s government debt is at $300 billion and at around 16% of its GDP but its private debt has skyrocketed and private debt levels are at 79% of the GDP. Russia is experiencing increasing private debt pressure and mounting credit defaults and corporate bankruptcies. The answer to this growing problem by the Russian government is to force banks to issue more debt and liquidity while it expropriates more freely.

The Russian government’s expenditure has increased with the war and revenues have begun declining this year for the first time since the war thanks to Ukraine’s war on the Russian oil industry. Coupled with the low oil-price, Ukraine can cause an economic disaster unto Russia if it is successful with its war against the Russian industry.

The Russian government’s oil and gas revenues amount to 26% of its income.

Russia, however, has a very large war-chest and it is making use of it. The Russian government has begun selling its gold reserves taking advantage of the high gold price. Russia has up to $300 million in gold reserves it can sell at the current prices.

Clearly, sanctions and the Ukraine war-effort are working and restraining the Russian economy. In order for Russia’s economy to become disrupted to the extent of affecting the course of the war in the immediate-term, Europe needs to:

1. Provide Ukraine with all the necessary equipment and fighter jets to dominate the skies.

2. Provide Ukraine with further long-range weapon capabilities to strike at Russia’s war-time economic infrastructure.

3. Provide Ukraine with enough heavy-weaponry to withstand the onslaught in the frontlines.

Ukraine’s conscription age is above from the age of 25 years. And Ukraine still has a lot of men it can call up for war.

If Europe does not step up its support, Ukraine will be left hoping the strategy may work out in the long-term. Indeed, the strategy at crippling Russia’s economy while holding it on the front is showing results but these results may not come as quick enough as the Russian hordes pressing at the frontlines. Therefore, Europe needs to increase its pressure and its military support to Ukraine to achieve more decisive results in the short-term. Ukraine is stepping up its purchases of fighter jets from European countries but these jets to be delivered much faster than planned in order to achieve faster results in the war.

The Russian economy is very fragile and with systematic efforts backed by Europe, Ukraine can achieve very decisive results in the near-term. Europe, however is very reluctant to support Ukraine to the extent that it could win this war in a decisive manner.