The state of the world from the European perspective

We are currently witnessing historic events unfold in front of our eyes at a significant and rapid pace. Here’s a brief recapitulation pf these events with some background context to address the ongoing discourse in the press.

Russia

Russia remains Europe’s existential security threat with the risk of a potential direct war and also with its ongoing subversive and hybrid campaigns against European countries. Russia exists as an imperial state with a belligerent foreign policy and it will keep pursuing such a policy if it is appeased by being granted territories in Ukraine. Ukraine needs to achieve a decisive victory against Russia to end the Russian threat against Europe.

Ukraine

There is a high probability that Ukraine will spend another year at war against Russia as Ukraine refuses to capitulate and cede territory to Russia. Ukraine plans to fight the war by holding the line, pushing back with minimal losses and waging a war against the Russian government’s main sources of income. Ukraine is being more successful in its war against the Russian economy than Russia is being successful at conquering Ukrainian land. You can read more here.

The Trans-Atlantic Relationship is fading

The Trans-Atlantic relationship is fading and this was officially announced by the US with its National Strategic Security Policy. President Trump had previously made his intentions very clear and what is happening today is no surprise. The US government along with the PayPal Mafia that is also a major political donor to Trump and his allies, are actively supporting far-right and pro-Russian political parties in Europe. European leaders are aware that Europe needs to be more united and the EU further strengthened in order for Europe to act as a global power, but Europe is still far away from taking the necessary steps to aggressively address its subversive security threats and work towards super-power status.

Russia is supporting the US in the undermining of European unity and Russia has its own subversive operations that support the far-right political parties in Europe such as the AFD. Europe should be united to counter these threats.

The NATO alliance is still active

The NATO alliance is still active although there is increasing distrust between European intelligence agencies and their US counterparts. Spain is an altogether different case due to its close ties with China. There are currently many US military assets in Europe including strategic bombers and other aircraft.

The Imperial World Order

It was very evident that President Trump had replaced the international rules-based order  with a new imperial order when he met with Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Trump was also very clear in his intentions that he wanted Ukraine to lose. Putting the blame on the collapse of the international rules-based order on the US intervention in Venezuela is very disingenuous (and partisan) and empirically incorrect. Nicolas Maduro was not the legitimate president of Venezuela and the intervention ahs been welcomed by the Venezuelan people and their legitimate leaders.

Western Empires versus China and Russia: the case about the Venezuelan oil 

In the imperial world, a strategic gain for the US can be a great loss to the empires trying to undermine us. The US intervention in Venezuela has dislocated its oil industry from Russia and China and this will be greatly beneficial to the world. Unfortunately, political commentators who making simplistic comparisons are Iraq are unaware of the facts at hand. Re-orientating the Venezuela oil industry towards the West will reduce OPEC’s influence and power over the oil price effectively further undermining the current global Russia-Saudi Arabia oil-cartel. In fact, US oil producers are complaining of potential incoming downward pressures on the oil price as soon as the US industry has regular access to Venezuela’s oil reserves.

Undermining OPEC’s influence on the oil price would not only potentially keep the oil price lower, it would also reduce Russia’s capabilities to influence global politics and wage wars across its borders. When one sees the effects and details of the US military intervention, it is empirically clear that the intervention was more anti-imperialist than imperialist in its features and consequences.

President Trump is more concerned about avoiding the Jeffrey Epstein case and winning the mid-term elections than “making money from oil ala Iraq War”.

European oil companies can benefit from renewed access to Venezuela.

The Trans-Atlantic alliance is not lost forever

Whatever happens under President Trump’s first term can be changed. The US is still a democracy with many checks and balances a vibrant civil society. Russia and China are increasing their influence and propaganda operations in the US and this should also be countered by European propaganda.

Greenland

Among European nations, Denmark has been one of the US strongest allies. The fact the US is threatening Denmark over Greenland is traumatic for many Danes who previously held the US in high esteem. Greenlanders don’t want to become part of the US and this scenario is highly improbable. The Prime Minister of Greenland came to the European Parliament and invited Europeans to invest in Greenland’s mineral resources.

President Trump’s security about Greenland are empirically correct: China and Russia are conducting a lot of activities in the Arctic including in international waters without opposition and resistance. There is also potentially significant intrusion of Russia and China into the European Arctic hemisphere. Norway has been one of the most active European countries in the Arctic followed by Denmark but Denmark lacks systematic capabilities to counter the Chinese and Russian threat in Greenland.

Security threats in Greenland can be addressed via NATO and the US already has a military presence there. The US has no legitimate reason to bypass NATO on this issue. Denmark and European leaders are very resolute on this issue and it is likely that this issue will be resolved with increased US military presence in Greenland and the sale of some mineral rights on the pretense that the US is protecting European borders.

However, it should also be pointed out that the economics of Greenland are not feasible and once again, this is not Iraq where you can simply blow a hole in the desert and start drilling for oil. Greenland is a cold and barren land without infrastructure. Establishing a mining industry in Greenland also means building massive infrastructure in extreme conditions – this is neither attractive nor very economically feasible unless it is done by the Greenlanders themselves who want to strive to grow their society and economy.

It will take some, or probably, many years, before Greenland is attractive to foreign expansive investment.

Foreign Trade

Europe is reducing its trading dependency on the US by striking new trade deals and Mercosur is the latest. However, in establishing new foreign trade opportunities, Europe should not loose sight of its principles and its security concerns. Europe should not rush into China’s arms as an immediate trading alternative to the US.

China

China’s belligerence is not only regional in ideological terms. China’s belligerence is aimed at establishing its perceived “Middle Kingdom” status as the world’s global super-power and its influence and reach is global. Europe has to treat China as a global power rival and not a partner.

Canada

Europe has missed a great opportunity to build a closer alliance with Canada. Europe could have successfully stood up to Trump on tariffs if it joined forced with Canada on the matter, but the European Commission caved in to President Trump’s tariffs very quickly. Canada hasn’t even signed a trade deal with the US yet.

Gaza and Palestine

Many are arguing that Europe has lost its moral standing after Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza. However, this is not necessarily the case given that Europe is still supporting the International Criminal Court over its case against Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu, bar Israel’s strongest allies in Europe. Israel is also becoming a security threat in the Mediterranean Sea. The EU is also a major donor and supporter of the Palestinian Authority.

Any pretensions that we may have of Europe applying international law must also come with a renewed push for a unified European defence framework, the creation of a European army and navy. NATO does not have a remit to enforce international law in our borders and neighbouring regions – this can be done by a European army. More about this issue in an article tomorrow.