Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met US Presidential candidate Donald Trump in his apartment at Trump Tower in New York last week. Zelensky looked visibly disappointed during the press conference that followed the meeting and politely interjected while Donald Trump was speaking, saying that he hoped the US would support Ukraine more than Russia under his potential presidency.
Donald Trump is blustering and bragging that Vladimir Putin would have never started an invasion of Ukraine had Trump been US President inferring that Putin somehow is afraid of him. If that was the case why wouldn’t Putin pull out of Ukraine if Trump was elected US President?
Donald Trump has a long historical and friendly relationship with Russia that extended when he was in office as US President. Russia and the Putin regime have consistently supported Donald Trump against his political rivals in the United States via their propaganda networks and and political warfare, and Trump’s inner circle was indicted and convicted for its secret ties and business dealings with Russian government officials. On the other hand, Donald Trump has a record of doing the opposite of what he says regarding being strong with the United States’ foreign rivals. Case in point is the fact that US imports from China increased considerably during Donald Trump’s Presidency despite his supposedly anti-China stance that was mainly based on the US trade deficit with China.
Today, Russia is funding the MAGA podcasters and influences to spread pro-Russian talking points in its combined efforts to help Trump getting elected and spread its propaganda. Trump says he wants to end “the Ukraine-Russian conflict” as soon as possible, but this just means Ukraine capitulating to Russia as the US potentially, stops all military and financial aid to Ukraine.
Until now, Ukraine has received up to €100 billion in weapons and arms donations, half of which came from the United States. Despite this military aid being stretched across two years, Russia’s military budget this year alone was even higher at around €130 billion. With its Soviet stockpiles combined with its current industrial capabilities, Russia is fighting Ukraine with an advantageous artillery ration of 12:1 not to mention its air superiority and missile stockpiles.
Ukraine is fighting a more resourceful enemy that also has a much bigger pool of manpower at its disposal. Western weapons to Ukraine have been indispensable for its survival and its counter-attacks to retake lost territory including Kherson and Kharkiv. Cutting off Ukraine’s arms donations would significantly weaken it militarily in the front enabling Russia to automatically takeover many more Ukrainian territories at a much more rapid rate.
On the other hand, a Ukrainian military defeat wouldn’t solve anything politically: this is a war of an invading aggressor against a sovereign state whose people don’t won’t to surrender to its invader. President Zelensky’s trust ratings have only increased in Ukraine throughout the war, and Ukrainians do not view Trump favorably, perceiving him as someone who would throw them under the bus for his Russian friends. No one can stop the Ukrainians fighting for their own severignity and land and this is logical. That they heropically resist against all odds is their own decision.
There is no real and economic issue behind the US weapon deliveries to Ukraine and what Trump is saying about Zelensky being “a good businessman” is a smear that is clearly intended to signal that Trump won’t be acceding to Ukraine’s requests for military aid. Most of the military aid provided to Ukraine is military surplus and halting aid to Ukraine won’t make a difference to the annual defense budget which runs to at least $900 billion every year. Reducing this budget would obviously mean cutting down on the arms industry and many jobs – this is something that Donald Trump as US President would never do nor any other Republican President.
Clearly, Donald Trump is campaigning for Vladimir Putin to win the war in Ukraine and is rooting for Ukraine to capitulate. In this case, the European allies have to step up to offset the difference in military aid. Another €100 billion in weaponry deliveries are needed for Ukraine next year for Ukrainian frontlines to hold. If Ukraine asks Europe for help it should deliver, and it will project cowardice and indifference if it refuses to do so.
If Europe does not offset the difference of US military aid in such a case of a drastic cut, Ukraine may be compelled to capitulate to Russia in order to save Kyiv, but if this happens, it will be one of Europe’s greatest strategic and political defeats in its history with Russia taking over Crime and potentially the Black Sea apart from the loss of overall European deterrence. This would mean that Europe would have failed in defending one of its small allies against an opponent that is much less smaller economically and military (Russia’s GDP is as large as that of Italy). The West has has already decided to weaken itself by abandoning its nuclear deterrent, something that is persistently insisted upon by Russian propaganda and talking points: “the West can’t afford a nuclear war over Ukraine” and so on and so forth. By refusing to let Ukraine win the war, Europe is giving Russia more strategic and political leverage to spread its terror and violence across the world, and this is why Europe’s and Ukraine’s security are interlinked. The proponents of peace in this case are proposing a victory for war and terror and an incentive for armed nuclear powers to lead the world via their military might and their nuclear threat.
Ukraine has proved it could win this war provided it has the right equipment and resources but the Western allies have been reluctant to accede to Ukraine’s requests fearing Russia’s bullying. There has probably never been a class of European leaders who were this complacent, indifferent and cowardly in their behaviour. One of the poorest nations in Europe is holding Russia back with a trickle of military donations, yet, the European leadership can’t even come to terms with this reality, let alone admit to themselves that Russia can be defeated both economically and militarily.
We all know that deep down, Trump is a narcissistic coward who couldn’t care less what happens to the world unless it effects his interests. He finds in Ukraine an easy scapegoat to draw the people’s ire about domestic problems (the government is spending too much). In reality, he couldn’t beat China in a trade war and no one expects him to beat Russia in a military war. He’s doing what everyone has expected him to do: sulk, sneer, gloat, brag, talk shit, lie and look out for his personal interests. European leaders should expect the worse with him as US President, and they should plan accordingly, especially by ensuring a commitment to Ukraine, augmenting defense and the overall European defense industry.
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