Yesterday, US Vice-President JD Vance broke a decades-years old tradition by attacking European countries at The Munich Security Conference. Since 1963, the MSC served as a platform for security cooperation and dialogue between European countries and the United States. It also served as one of the platforms for extensive collaboration between Europe and the United States in the US wars of Afghanistan and Iraq. You can listed to the full speech b y the US Vice-President here.
During his speech the US Vice-President condemned Romania for annulling its election results over Russian-funded propaganda campaigns and also defended Germany’s far-right party the AFD which is also being currently promoted by Elon Musk. Vice-President Vance condemned Europe’s actions to curtail Russian propaganda and political interference in Europe describing it as an attack on free speech.
President Donald Trump wants Ukraine to capitulate to Russia, give up its lost territories, and hand over to the US its rare earth minerals. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has also announced that the US may pull out its troops from Europe as a concession given to Russia for an imposed peace-deal on Ukraine. the US does not want Ukraine to join NATO, effectively keeping it vulnerable to future attacks by Russia.
The United States is working towards full-rapprochement and appeasement towards Russia with the final aim to rehabilitate Russia back into the Western world of trade and diplomacy. President Trump also said he wants Russia back in the G7. As part of this campaign of rapprochement, top US government officials are publicly supporting far-right political parties in Europe which share the same vision for Western-Russian relationships.
The United States is attempting to reshape global alliances, officially claiming neutrality while openly favouring Russia at Europe’s expense. So far, European leaders have not responded to this abrupt shift in U.S. strategic alignment. In an interview with Christiane Amanpour, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas shrugged off the comments made by the US Vice-President at the MSC and implied that that principles of the Trans-Atlantic alliance have not changed.
Yesterday, French President Emmanuel Macron made a media blitz to promote, once again, his idea of European Strategic Reawaking and said proposed among other things to increase defense expenditure and increase the efficiency of European capital and energy markets by taking on the proposals of Mario Draghi. We have been hearing about this Strategic Awaking for some time now, and France is doing its part by doubling its defense expenditure as of next year, but collectively Europe is ignoring the consequences and effects of the Russian war in Ukraine and the current and ongoing strategic re-alignment pressed by the United States.
In preparation for a Trump Presidency, Europeans stepped up military aid pledges to Ukraine and some of this aid is finally entering Ukraine. Earlier this month, French Mirage Jets and Dutch F-16s arrived in Ukraine. Much more weaponry from Europe is intended to arrive in Ukraine soon including thousands of German Helsing suicide drones which Germany pledged up to 6,000. However, Nordic countries are currently taking the largest burden in supplying Ukraine with weaponry.
Last November, Norway pledged up to €3.1 billion in military aid for Ukraine for the year 2025. Sweden announced up to €1.3 billion in military aid for Ukraine earlier this year. The Netherlands added another €400 million in drones earlier this year, while Denmark is also increasing its investment in missile and drone production in Ukraine. Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Rustem Umero said following the Rammstein Meeting of February that Europeans have pledged more military aid. Yesterday, Finland has announced an increase in military aid for Ukraine. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has once again reiterated the UK’s position that Ukraine should join NATO.
Clearly, European leaders seem to be aware of the serious security and political risks that will result if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, and a sense of panic is compelling them to increase military aid to Ukraine. Collectively, Europe has now become the largest military aid donor to Ukraine, surpassing the United States, yet at the same time, Europe has given up its power of speaking for Ukraine in the international diplomatic stage as they left the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky to contend by himself President Trump’s overreach of directly negotiating with Russia over Ukraine’s fate.
Europe should have never allowed the United States to take the lead in negotiating for Ukraine, especially now that Ukraine relies more on Europe than on the U.S. for military and defense equipment. Despite President Macron’s hurried pleas for European Strategic Awakening, there is no Strategic Awakening. Europe is capitulating to Russia and to its new ally at the White House. European leaders wish for a strategic awakening but they are failing to execute.
Assessments by European intelligence services, including the Danish Foreign Intelligence Service (DDIS), state that Russia will probably launch a renewed attack on Europe within five years if it wins the war in Ukraine. There is near consensus among European intelligence services and analysts regarding Russia’s current and future strategic policy, as well as its interest in continuously reviving its power and influence over its neighbors and the West. There is also consensus on the fact that China is increasingly acquiring strategic resources across the world such as harbours, airports and agricultural land, and has no qualms in using these assets strategically including to leverage them against Europe and its policies. Under President Trump’s new global regime, borders and resources will be increasingly contested and Russia and China will be allowed to make acts of aggression on the basis of supposedly, legitimate political claims.
Everybody knows these things, but the problem is that very few in power of those in power in Europe want to actually do something about it. The result of this is that the United States is being allowed to dismantle the security and defense infrastructure of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance, effectively empowering Russia, while European leaders simply keep watching in shock, unable to execute any actual strategic awakening.
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