Russia is still considering its options before accepting the US proposed ceasefire agreement. Russia’s main aim in its war against Ukraine is to subdue Ukraine’s sovereignty entirely and if successful, annex the country as it is actively doing in the occupied regions. Ukrainian citizens who are under Russian occupation are forced to give up their Ukrainian citizenship in exchange for Russian citizenship. This indicates that a potential total victory for Russia in Ukraine would result in the ethnic cleansing of Ukrainians and the dissolution of the state of Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that Ukraine is not actually a real state.
Following the successful talks in Jeddah with the Ukrainian delegation and the parties’ agreement on a ceasefire, Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined the US position on Ukraine and the ceasefire agreement. The Secretary of State claimed that there is no military solution for the war in Ukraine and that both parties can’t achieve their full goals. Ukraine’s goal is to recapture the territory it lost to the Russians.
The US administration appeased the Russian government by withdrawing military support and intelligence sharing to Ukraine temporally as a result helping Russia with its war efforts. The US is also seeking good relations with Russia while breaking relations with its allies, namely Canada and Europe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court for kidnaping tens of thousands of Ukrainian children and taking them to Russia. Russia killed more than 100,000 Ukrainian civilians in its invasion of Ukraine and displaced many others.
A peace deal with Russia as being proposed and pushed by the United States means that Russia would have successfully invaded a sovereign country and colonised its territory including by ethnic cleansing. Many Ukrainians would not be able to return to their previous homes because most Ukrainians don’t want to live under Russian rule. Undoubtedly Russia does not want Ukraine to join either the European Union or NATO as both of these organisations provide security guarantees to their members.
Secretary Marco Rubio also stated that Europe would have to compelled to lift its sanctions from Russia following any peace deal. On the other hand, the mineral rights deal between the US and Ukraine won’t provide Ukraine with any security guarantees but would provide an incentive for the US to provide security measures for Ukraine in order to protect US interests. The US is expecting Europe to fork out its guarantees for Ukraine.
The Us provided up to $120 billion in aid to Ukraine but Europe’s collective aid to Ukraine adds up to โฌ300 billion, however the US has taken the lead as a broker between Ukraine and Russia. The US has leverage over Ukraine due to its current weapons deliveries and its intelligence sharing which has been proved essential for Ukrainian military defensive operations.
The United States has exceptional leverage over Ukraine with its extensive intelligence sharing and this can not be easily replaced as fast as weapons deliveries by Europe. Ukraine is giving in to the demands by the US as it feels the pressure by the results of the US withdrawing its support for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s week position is also due to the fact that Ukraine never acquired the necessary weaponry to defeat a much superior military adversary. Ukraine is outnumbered in the battlefield by at least 4:1 and Russia still has air superiority over the skies with its arsenal of missiles and air force. Despite overwhelming superiority, the Ukrainians managed to resist the Russian invasion, recapturing territory, and even invading Russia. The Ukrainians destroyed most of Russia’s ground military equipment, destroyed most of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and are currently making advances in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk areas.
The US has consistently favoured Russia’s gains at the expense of Ukraine during the ongoing series of negotiations between the US, Ukraine and Russia while the US has been mostly focusing to convince Ukraine to sign a mineral rights deal. The US is also forcing the EU and European countries to accept its conditions over peace with Russia including lifting sanctions. Any peace deal would surely won’t serve to bring the President of Russia to face justice at the International Criminal Court.ย The United States is also forcing Europe to compromise its security, standing and leverage over Russia at the expense of US relations with Russia.
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