Spanish intelligence services have raised the spectre of a repeat of 2021’s cross-border events following last week’s Ceuta crisis, when up to 60,000 migrants breached the border illegally from the Moroccan side. The Spanish intelligence services identified members of the Moroccan secret services among the crowds that gathered at the border, while also reporting an unusually low Moroccan police presence on the other side, according to various press reports.
Moroccan migrants were also enticed to cross the border through social media groups that spread disinformation, including claims that the border with Spain was open. Most of the Moroccan migrants were successfully expelled back by the Spanish Police and Armed Forces.
The reports raise the spectre of a repeat of 2021, when Morocco intentionally allowed thousands of migrants to cross the border into Spain after significantly reducing its police presence. In 2021, Morocco retaliated against Spain for secretly admitting the leader of the Polisario Front, Brahim Ghali, for Covid treatment. Morocco considered this a provocation and retaliated by reducing the number of border guards stationed near Ceuta, deliberately allowing up to 12,000 migrants to cross the border.
Morocco still has an ongoing dispute with Spain over its refusal to recognise Moroccan authority over Western Sahara. During his previous term, US President Donald Trump recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Morocco normalising ties with Israel.
Spain, Italy and the EU have appeased North African regimes with aid, assistance and investments in exchange for them to prevent migrant border crossings into Europe.

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