The Trans-Atlantic Alliance is in tatters. For the first time since NATO was founded, the US is threatening Europe’s sovereignty and borders by demanding the annexation of Greenland. Meanwhile, the US wants to rehabilitate Russia into the world economy and force Ukraine to capitulate to Russia. Europe’s borders and sovereignty are currently threatened simultaneously by both Russia and the US.
When President Donald Trump announced his global trade war on April 2nd, the EU did not retaliate and sought to resolve the dispute via negotiations. However, Europe seems to be retaliating indirectly via international brinkmanship. The EU is currently in negotiations with China to sign a free-tariff agreement on electronic vehicles. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez went as far as China itself to sign a bilateral agreement that includes cooperation on technology, science, culture and even cinematography.
It is not very clear what Premier Sanchez is trying to achieve with his trip to China, but his previous visit to Vietnam with an announcement that Spain will invest up to €350 million in Spanish companies in Vietnam may indicate that Premier Sanchez is trying to increase Spanish exports to China through a backdoor. Spain has a massive trade deficit with China. In 2023 China exported up to $39.71 billion worth of products but Spain exported to China only up to $8.04 billion worth of products in the same year.
China is Russia’s main trading partner with trade between the two nations hitting up to $237 billion in 2024. Russia is selling cheap oil to China while it imports a wide-range of products from China that enable it to continue its war in Ukraine. China is also directly helping Russia in its war against Ukraine. As of last year, hundreds of Chinese troops went to fight in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. China is even aiding Russia in its hybrid war against Europe having participated in Russia’s sabotage of European undersea cables.
Technically speaking, strengthening China also strengthens Russia. China has become the biggest Russian sanction-breaking conduit in the world, effectively watering down the effects of sanctions on Russia. According to the EU’s High Representative Kaja Kallas Russia wouldn’t even be able to wage its war on Ukraine without China’s support.
Clearly, the EU doesn’t have a strategic and active policy that is ensuring worldwide compliance with its sanctions on Russia because if it does, it would have pressured China to comply with its sanctions. Yet, after China has directly attacked Europe and funded Russia’s war in Ukraine, Europe is now rewarding it with trade and bilateral deals. It seems that European leaders don’t even want Ukraine to win its war against Russia. Implementing sanctions without following through their global implementation reeks of idealism without practicality.
Europe is making a gross error of judgement in trusting China. It is doing the same mistake it did with Russia over the years as Europeans thought that Russia would become more liberal and less autocratic if Russia traded with the west. Yet, those of us who remember Francis Fukuyama’s tables of liberal-democracies that we studied at university have grown up to watch a reversal of this trend as autocratic countries like China and Russia that traded with the West became even more autocratic. Not only did they become more totalitarian: they also adopted a traditional imperialist policy which seeks to expand its borders as they bully, attack and invade their neighbours.
Today, China is bullying the Philippines over maritime borders and is threatening Taiwan with an invasion. Hong Kong, once a vibrant democracy and an incubator of global free trade and capitalism has now become become China’s sitting duck. Thousands of citizens from Hong Kong fled their homes into exile and many were imprisoned as China took over the enclave. What was one of the most vibrant places on earth has become an outpost for the Communist Party of China. If you would like to see what happens to a country when China takes over just look at Hong Kong: China killed Hong Kong’s soul.
Bizarrely, Europe wants to reward China. When Premier Sanchez was asked by journalists in Beijing what he thinks about the EU’s description of China as a strategic rival, he simply shrugged off the question and said that Europe has had a relationship with China for fifty years. None of this makes sense.
It is logical that Europe would seek a strategy of brinkmanship against the US as the US threatens Europe. However, there is also a limit to this brinkmanship which can backfire heavily if your bluff is called. Europe may very well seek to strengthen ties with US rivals as part of strategic brinkmanship to achieve stronger leverage with the US, but in doing so Europe should not undermine itself. There are many other options that Europe can chose for strategic brinkmanship with the US such as Colombia, Cuba and even Iran which can be more easily forced to drop its relations with Russia. Ultimately, Europe should seek stronger ties with the Arab world and support the Palestinian cause for a Palestinian state and these measures would be even more effective as leverage with the US than trading with China.
On trade itself, Europe should seek stronger deals with democracies and this would be an effective way for Europe to promote its values abroad as it incentivises developing countries to take up liberal and democratic values. India, which is the rising giant of the East, has a very likely chance of catching up with China, yet Europe seems to be missing its chance of developing a strategic relationship with India that can help it compete further with China.
Europe clearly has no end-game in its international relations. Probably, there are also strong disagreements between the EU’s High Representative and the Commission President. The EU High Representative seems to be more aware of the dangers and risks involved in befriending China.
Ultimately, Europe does not need to choose between the US and China as Europe can chose itself by projecting its own foreign policy distinct from everyone else. Europe was the world’s global superpower for hundreds of years and the position of the US as the world’s superpower is relatively new in history. Europe should seek to become the world’s global superpower once again, but it won’t be able to achieve this status if China and Russia remain relatively strong enough to threaten Europe’s borders.
Newsroom
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