The world in 2025

2024 ends with a monumental historic event: the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the rebuilding of Syria after more than fifty years of tyranny and oppression by the Baathist regime and political party that today is no more. This historic event does not stand in isolation to its regional neighbours: it is a process that started in 2011 with the Syrian Revolution, and the Syrian Revolution was part of a wider revolutionary phenomenon that engulfed the Arab world.

On the 17th of December 2010, a 26-yeard old Tunisian hawker set fire to himself in front of the governor’s office in Tunis, after the police harassed him and confiscated his scales. Mohamed Bouazizi burnt himself as he screamed “How do you expect me to make a living?” He died weeks later in hospital, yet his screams echoed on throughout the Arab world rousing the fire of revolt. Arabs related and empathised with Mohamed Bouazizi, as they could understand his pain and troubles: a pain that Arabs shared in common as a result of decades of tyranny and despotism.

It took the screams and pain of a young man that ignited years of frustration in the Arab world and the anger turned into revolution. Tunisian President Ben Ali who ruled Tunisia for 24 years, was ousted just weeks after Bouazizi was announced dead at the hospital: an announcement to which the Tunisian people responded with revolt. Even more unprecedented were the massive protests in Egypt that ousted President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. Tahrir Square in Cairo became a revolutionary camp with the people that gathered there refusing to move until the dictator, who ruled Egypt for nearly 30 years, left office. Leave indeed he did as the Egyptian Army refused to use its weapons against protestors and the dictator was left powerless to stop the revolution.

In Libya, with a state that revolved entirely around the dictator and his clan, Muammar Ghaddafi’s armed forces weren’t going to doubt their dictator’s orders. As protests in Tripoli were taking place against Ghaddafis rule, his son, Saif al-Islam went on the public broadcaster and threatened Libyans with “rivers of blood” as he waved and pointed his finger with authority in front of the camera. In March 2011, Ghaddafi sent a military convoy to Benghazi which encircled the city which had just risen in revolt against the dictator. Right before Ghaddafi’s military convoy burst into the city centre to machine gun their opponents, Nicolas Sarkozy orders French fighter planes to prepare a strike against Ghaddafi’s military convoy. US President Barack Obama opposed the military intervention in Libya, but Sarkozy informed the US President that France was going in, with or without the backing of the United States. France conducted its airstrike against Ghaddafi’s military with the United States being compelled by France to support the mission.

Then, in the same month, Syrians also began protesting. In Syria, there were no military convoys, no public threats about “rivers of blood”, only the secret and hidden orders of a dictator who lied and pretended with the West of being a “moderate”. Syrian Army soldiers blatantly shot and killed protestors in the streets in what was the typical hallmark of aggression of the Assad regime. Not all the soldiers agreed with suppressing protests: those who didn’t, grabbed their weapons, left the official army and created the Free Syrian Army. It took thirteen years of war and instability to oust the Syrian dictator while he was propped-up by Russia and Iran. Even after the Free Syria Army was defeated, someone else came along and the Islamists filled the void: a process we have seen happening in the Arab World for over a century, each and every time the secular opposition to an Arab dictator was purged.

Today, the Arab Spring remains relentless. The military Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has just inaugurated a €45 billion presidential palace. Shortly after,  Bashar al-Assad fled Damscus, Sisi was filmed saying that Egyptians don’t need to worry what’s going on in Syria and that he isn’t worried either because according to him, he neither has blood on his hands, nor has he stolen the people’s money. The supporters of his predecessor, President Mohamed Morsi may have a different opinion. After all, President Morsi was the first ever democratically-elected President in Egypt and was ousted by a military coup lead by Sisi himself who went on to replace him as President. Mohamed Morsi died in 2013 as he stood trial over trumped-up charges. President Morsi, who suffered diabetes, was refused medical care while being illegally detained by the military.

President Sisi is right to fear the Arab Spring because he has brought nothing to Egyptians but more of the same thing that their previous despots gave them: a state run by incompetent and corrupt military officers, widespread looting of public resources by the ruling-elite, and poverty and despotism for the people. A third of Egypt’s 112 million people live under the poverty line while most of those who live above it, aren’t much better off. President Sisi knows that it is getting harder to sell despotism to the Arabs without economic prosperity. Expect the Arab Spring to continue its course, in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and even in the more unlikelier places. The youth in Saudi Arabia seem to like their reformist dictator, Mohamed bin-Salman, but women’s voices will grow stronger and push the Arab Spring further into its limits. As men were the ones to feature predominantly in the first wave of the Arab Spring, the next wave will increasingly include young women who experience even tighter limits on their freedom than their male counterparts.

However, there is some good news for dictators across the globe and it’s the incoming President of the United States of America: Donald Trump. President Trump’s police will give a breather to dictators across the world as President Trump intends to bring a halt to the Russian war in Ukraine, and effectively normalising relationships with Russia. Under President Trump, Russia may well again become a legitimate economic and political player across the globe. Unsanctioned and unfettered, Russia would inevitably continue increasing its imperial reach by strengthening its allies and partners: all despots and tyrannical regimes. Iran may be the exception in this global relief for dictators, as President Trump intends to push against the Iranian regime to appease the hardliners in Israel and their lucrative lobby in Washington.

As for China, there will be, as usual, lots of talk and bluster and no action. Previously, President Donald Trump entered office with the promise to stop the Chinese “ripping off America” in trade. He blamed the trade-deficit with China for the deindustiralisation of the United States and vowed to re-industrialise the United States. US imports from China actually increased during President Trump’s first term in office. What is more blatantly evident is, that even after President Trump’s first term, President Trump is taking office again with a China that is even more powerful compared when he entered office for the first time. Today, despite its economic crisis, China dares to do brazen acts against Taiwan it previously didn’t do, while China’s dictator, Xi Jinping is clearly insisting on China’s aim to occupy Taiwan.

President Trump will have no idea what to do if China attacks Taiwan. He’s a good actor, an impeccable salesman, and an effective orator, but he doesn’t know how to run the world’s superpower. His administration looks like a broken cast from Miami Vice with Elon Musk taking on the role of a Rasputin-like consultant as he indulges in the attention of the same MAGA supporters he calls “crackheads”: he says they are insulting and show no gratitude to him despite giving these “crackheads” a voice via his social media platform. This is like when the house is on fire and the fire department is run by Bashar al-Assad’s cronies. You don’t know if the fire engine is going to arrive.

In fact, President Trump hasn’t brought an end to the war in Ukraine, despite promising his voters that he would end the war 24 hours after getting elected. The reality is that he doesn’t know what to do about it and he is not going to end the war in Ukraine. Even if in the worst case scenario, Ukraine capitulates to Russia, the war will extend with Ukrainian partisans who won’t forgive nor forget Russia’s deadly conquests. Many Eastern European states will still not recognise or do business with the Russian regime, and a cold war between those who don’t accept Trump’s new world order, and the newly recognised Russian despotic state will emerge.

Russian President Vladimir Putin wants a quick end to the war and some Ukrainian land. The Ukrainians aren’t going to give it to him, even with a peace deal signed by the Ukrainian government as it is forced to capitulate with a lack of US arms provisions. Russia has started a war of imperial conquest and in Europe we have a long history where imperial wars of conquest are prolonged and renewed, or overturned even after peace treaties. There is nothing today which says that this time it is going to be different. That Russia is going to be legitimised with a peace deal is also an illusion and things are never going to get back to “normal” again as long as Russia retains its imperialist regime. The arrest warrant against Vladimiur Putin by the International Criminal Court isn’t going to go away.

Europe’s tilt to the far-right would definitely make Putin’s prospects much better and this is also what American Rasputin now wants as he supports and campaigns for the German far-right political party, Alternative for Germany. AFD’s leader, and nominee for German Chancellor, Alice Wiedel wants the removal of US forces and bases from Germany and normalisation with Vladimir Putin. She also wants the removal of US nuclear weapons from Germany. This proposal goes against the Allied post-War arrangement where Germany’s defence and nuclear deterrence was guaranteed by the United States, while preventing Germany’s need to re-arm itself. Germany was the cause of both world wars, so having an unarmed Germany was a mutual understanding between the Allies, even by Germany itself, to avoid another major war in Europe.

Today, nothing has changed to remove Europe’s collective veto Germany’s re-armament, however this is also not a security threat, for now. Currently, Europe’s major security threat is Russia. What Alice Wiedel is proposing is neither in the interest of Germany nor in the interest of Europe, because the US forces in Germany are currently a major deterrent against Russia. Removing this deterrent would only give Russia further military and political power, but what is even stranger in Wiedel’s position is that she also categorically rules out producing German nuclear weapons. Germany will have no deterrence against Russia if it builds an army without nuclear weapons, and what Wiedel is proposing, to remove the nuclear deterrent while augmenting the military, does not make any logical sense. Yet, it is no coincidence, that all of the major far-right political parties in Europe are promoting a foreign policy that goes against NATO, against the prospect of European army, against giving weapons to Ukraine, and for normalising relationships with Russia. While Donald Trump’s foreign policy is incessantly self-interested as his family members strike lucrative deals with world leaders, the European far-right see Russia as a natural ally as a political backer which disregards human rights and the basic values of democracy. The suicidal rush for “peace” with Russia by the European far-right runs along with its intentions to clamp down on free speech, journalism, and the multi-party democracy, just like Viktor Orban has done in Hungary (still the poorest nation in Europe).

The far-right in Europe is making headway but not due to racism, immigration and the failure of the “multicultural society”. Illegal immigration in Europe peaked years ago, with the borders now more secure than ever. Only a dysfunctional state like Spain is still struggling with the flow of illegal immigrants in its borders and it is also, incidentally, the prefect example of why the far-right is gaining ground in Europe. The tragedy in Valencia exposed the total dysfunction of the Spanish state after it was unable to respond  to a flooding catastrophe that left more than 200 people dead. Residents were left asking where is the state after they were compelled to dig dead bodies out of the wreckage. Paperwork and bureaucracy were cited as issues that delayed help. This was the last thing that Spanish residents expected after living under an overburdening paternal state that taxes them heavily for everything in an economy that produces mostly low paying jobs.

Europe is going through unprecedented economic decline and no one wants to do anything about it, except for the far-right which is promising to turn a over a new leaf. Europe needs to turn things around with urgency and with the mainstream political parties promising nothing but more of the same, the far-right is becoming by default the only alternative. Alice Wiedel has little chance of becoming the next German Chancellor as another traffic-light coalition, this time lead by the conservatives will be the most likely outcome in the German elections. However, the far-right will keep gaining ground if European politicians remain complacent.

The older generations don’t seem to understand the urgency for change. The left is a total disaster in every respect, but the centre-right is still lead by the old conservatives who keep bringing nothing but more of the same. The European Parliament President Roberta Metsola projects a much bolder vision for Europe in every respect, but she is neither a an accurate representative sample of the young generations in the centre-right. Even the much anticipated Draghi report didn’t cause any political enthusiasm for renewal and change. For now, Europe seems to have little hope for its future as it wades into economic decline. In politics, Europeans are more focused on battling the far-right without conjuring up new visions of hope. Europe is in desperate need for political renewal and political leaders and with the incoming exit of President Emmanuel Macron in 2027, the urgency for political renewal is only more urgent.

In a situation where President Trump withdraws the role of the United States as the world’s arbiter of international law, we are left with President Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer sharing the role. Both of these leaders are extremely busy handling politics at home: Macron is bogged down in perpetual government crises with a parliament that can’t come to an agreement, while Starmer is already struggling with a crash in the polls. On the other hand, President Macron lost credibility when the French government issued a statement declaring that it would be upholding the international arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. That leaves the United Kingdom as the last remaining European power which intends to uphold an international arrest warrant against the Israeli Prime Minister.

With President Joe Biden out of office, Israel will have a freer hand in bombing civilians and annexing Palestinian land. The Biden administration pressured Israel over their mass killing of civilians, halted the 200-pound bomb supplies, and pressured Israel to provide humanitarian aid to Palestinians. Incoming President Donald Trump doesn’t have these concerns and no one will be left in the White House to advocate for the Palestinians. His appointees with regard to Israel are some of the most eccentric, and extremist idiots to have ever held the post. Israel wants to annex the West Bank and destroy any hope for a Palestinian state and President Trump may very well allow them to do it. There’s someone new in the equation, however that will yet prove his mettle over the Palestinian issue. This is the new Ottoman Sultan Tayyip Erdogan, formally known as the President of Turkey.

Those who are not Muslim may not be seeing the enormous historical significance with Turkey being the foremost and strongest backer of the Syrian revolutionary leadership. President Erdogan achieved a major symbolic coup in Islamic world by being the patron of the new Syrian leadership of Damascus that hosts one of the most important mosques in the Islamic world: the Umayyad Mosque built by the Umayyads who ruled the Islamic empire at its height stretching from Tehran to Madrid. Damascus was the capital and the seat of power of the Umayyads and Erdogan has just crowned himself as the major advocate and patron for Muslims across the globe: a position that was previously contested between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Israel’s security concerns in Syria aren’t mostly about a gang of Toyota-driving and AK-wielding rebels: these concerns are more about a regional power like Turkey or Iran that would provide the Arabs the necessarily capabilities to successfully fight Israel. This is also why Israel prefers to ally itself with the Kurds against Turkey. So, as Turkey will increasingly back and advocate for Palestinians, Israel will do the same about the Kurds.

If there is any silver living to 2025 is that inflation may actually go down if President Trump does the same things he did when he was President last time. President Trump brought down oil prices as he maximised Us oil production to the extent of making it the biggest oil exporter in the world. President Biden did the same with natural gas. So far, the Trump effect still has to reflect in oil and gas prices which are currently high enough to bring inflation higher than anticipated. Yet, the economic bonanza Trump may bring along would pale in comparison with the global turmoil that will unfold if Russia has its way.